Open Championship golf is quite distinct from the three other majors, which — at least in theory — should lend itself to being easier to predict. The problem? So often players will show up on Open leaderboards from out of nowhere, and Ben Curtis or Darren Clarke (good players but certainly not favorites) will end up holding the Claret Jug on Sunday.

Still, there are trends we can look at and trajectories we can follow. Jordan Spieth is an elite links golfer. So is Xander Schauffele. Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler have posted recent finishes at majors that have been impressive. Rory McIlroy destroys at Opens. These are the types of historical events that make it easier when trying to rank a field of 156 of the best golfers in the world.

So let’s take a look at that group of 156 and whittle it down to the 21…

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