The 2021 PGA Championship starts this week with 156 golfers teeing it up on the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. Not all of them have a shot of winning, of course, and as Brooks Koepka pointed out a few years ago, there are really only 30 guys he has to worry about.

There might be fewer this week as a bad side of the draw could spell trouble for the biggest stars in the game with winds whipping around Kiawah like they did in the second round of the 2012 PGA Championship when the scoring average ballooned. 

Regardless, I have reduced Koepka’s list to 21 names (well, technically 22), and coincidentally, he’s not on it. With a gimp knee and just two rounds of play since the Masters, I’m unconvinced he’s fit enough to go win his fifth major championship.

Using a combination of recent statistical trends, history at PGAs…

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